Giuseppe Pio Dachille (INPS)
Maria De Paola and Roberto Nisticò
This paper examines the impact of Italys Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), a guaranteed minimum income program introduced in 2019, on fertility. Using administrative data from the Italian Social Security Institute and a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we uncover regionally heterogeneous effects. While no significant impact is observed in the Centre-North, RdC recipients in the South are 1.5 percentage points more likely to have a child within two years compared to non-recipientsa 18% increase. Additionally, we find no significant effect of RdC on labor supply in the South, whereas beneficiaries in the Centre-North experience a 0.3-month reduction in work and a $260 decline in individual earnings over an eight-month perioda 17% and 19% decrease, respectively. These contrasting responses appear to be driven by more traditional gender norms and lower opportunity costs of childbearing in the South relative to the Centre-North.