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AIEL 2026


41st Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Law
Roma Tre University 

Rome, 17-19 September 2026 

Firm Recruitment under Guaranteed Minimum Income: Evidence from Italy’s Online Job Vacancy Data


Presenter

Massimiliano Bratti (University of Milan)


Coauthors

Agata Maida and Filippo Passerini


Abstract

This paper studies the effects of Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) schemes on firm recruitment, focusing on the Italian case. Leveraging rich Online Job Vacancies (OJV) data, we examine how the introduction of the GMI affects the number, duration, and characteristics of job postings. We implement a Difference-in-IV strategy, exploiting municipal variation in GMI exposure after its introduction. This approach allows us to identify the causal impact of GMI on formal firm recruitment behavior. We find that firms more heavily exposed to the GMI experience an increase in the number and duration of postings, as well as in the likelihood of disclosing wages. We also find that the effects of the GMI are highly heterogeneous depending on the firm- and province-specific characteristics. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how GMI schemes may affect firm recruitment dynamics.