Massimiliano Bratti (University of Milan)
Agata Maida and Filippo Passerini
This paper studies the effects of Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) schemes on firm recruitment, focusing on the Italian case. Leveraging rich Online Job Vacancies (OJV) data, we examine how the introduction of the GMI affects the number, duration, and characteristics of job postings. We implement a Difference-in-IV strategy, exploiting municipal variation in GMI exposure after its introduction. This approach allows us to identify the causal impact of GMI on formal firm recruitment behavior. We find that firms more heavily exposed to the GMI experience an increase in the number and duration of postings, as well as in the likelihood of disclosing wages. We also find that the effects of the GMI are highly heterogeneous depending on the firm- and province-specific characteristics. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of how GMI schemes may affect firm recruitment dynamics.