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AIEL 2026


41st Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Law
Roma Tre University 

Rome, 17-19 September 2026 

Scientific Evidence and Belief Updating in Polarized Media Environments


Presenter

Marco Bertoni (University of Padua)


Coauthors

Paolo Falco, Luigi Guiso, Tullio Jappelli and Roberto Nisticò


Abstract

We use a large-scale survey experiment in Italy to study how citizens update their beliefs about the effects of highly salient and politically contested policy reforms when exposed to scientific evidence. We find that while prior beliefs are often inconsistent with accurate scientific evidence, providing this evidence shifts beliefs towards accuracy. Crucially, belief updating is largely independent of the political alignment of media source conveying the information. This suggests that credible evidence can overcome partisan divides.