Francesca Mameri (Catholic University of Milan)
Rui Costa, Rebecca Rose and Matteo Sandi
This article provides evidence that exposure to gang control during the incarceration period pushes individuals on a path of organized crime life. Using an IV design that exploits the timing of exits from the prisons of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), we show that when vacancies become available in prison galleries controlled by criminal organizations, newly incarcerated young men are 9.8% more likely to be assigned to them. Leveraging intelligence mapping of prison galleries and administrative data for the period 2017-2025, we find that initial allocation to a gang controlled gallery increases the share of time spent under gang control by 73%, and raises the probability of re-incarceration within two years after release by 58% relative to individuals first assigned to neutral galleries. The availability of data from the Intelligence of State allows us to observe the position of individuals within organized crime groups before and after their prison stay. The estimated effects are stronger for individuals with weak or absent prior links to organized crime networks. The analysis of the prison experience shows that inmates exposed to criminal organizations receive more family visits and are less likely to work while in prison, showing how criminal organizations provide perks to their affiliates, strengthening loyalty and ties and, in turn, providing further evidence on the underlying mechanisms.