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AIEL 2026


41st Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Law
Roma Tre University 

Rome, 17-19 September 2026 

When the Going Gets Tough: the Impact of Health Shocks on Divorce


Presenter

Daniela Vuri (University of Rome Tor Vergata)


Coauthors

Javier Adrián López Artero and Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano


Abstract

Does illness break marriages? We analyze how unexpected health shocks---sudden diagnoses of cancer, stroke, or heart attack---affect couple dissolution among older adults (50+). Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study and a quasi-experimental design comparing affected households to those experiencing similar shocks later, we find that health crises increase divorce probability by 19% relative to the baseline rate. This effect builds gradually rather than emerging immediately. We examine three explanatory channels: mental health deterioration, cognitive decline, and financial strain. The evidence indicates these factors play important roles in understanding how health shocks destabilize marriages in later life.