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AIEL 2026


41st Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Law
Roma Tre University 

Rome, 17-19 September 2026 

The Impact of the European Emission Trading Schemes on WorkersÂ’ Careers and Earnings Trajectories: It Is All About the Rents, No Troubles


Presenter

Michele Raitano (Sapienza University of Rome)


Coauthors

Francesca De Matteis, Giovanni Marin and Francesco Vona


Abstract

This paper studies the impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) on individual careers and earnings trajectories of workers in Italian manufacturing sectors over two decades (2000-20219). Using administrative matched employer–employee data and two-stage matching techniques, we find that EU-ETS workers experience a modest long-term gain (+9.3\%) in terms of annual wages. Workers in EU-ETS firms experience higher weekly wages, more weeks worked, lower probability to change job and greater job stability compared to matched workers. Firm characteristics play an important role explaining the advantage of ETS-workers: i. leaving an ETS firm brings to earnings losses, especially for those finding a job in the same sector; ii. effects on stayers are more pronounced, including on the AKM firm effect; iii. the aggregate effect is driven by sectors where grandfathering is more prevalent. Finally, high-skilled workers, with arguably better outside options, are able to obtain a larger share of the rents generated by the EU-ETS.