× Homepage Programme Participants Location Social Events Presentation Instructions Practical Info

AIEL 2026


41st Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Law
Roma Tre University 

Rome, 17-19 September 2026 

The Heat Penalty: Temperature and Injury Risk in Professional Football


Presenter

Matteo Picchio (Marche Polytechnic University)


Coauthors

Mattia Filomena


Abstract

We study the effect of ambient temperature on worker injury incidence using data from professional football (soccer) in the Italian Serie A. Identification of the causal effect relies on exogenous short-run, within-team-season variation in kick-off temperature. We document substantial heterogeneity between intrinsic and extrinsic injuries. A one-degree increase in temperature raises the number of intrinsic injuries by 1.9%, with larger effects for severe injuries (+3.9%), while extrinsic injuries are not significantly affected, suggesting that heat operates primarily through internal physiological stress. The temperature gradient is stronger in matches played at home and in the latter part of the season. Moreover, temperature differentially affects injury risk across playing positions, with midfielders, who face the highest physical demands in terms of distance covered, being the most affected. Finally, exposure to sustained high temperatures in the days prior to the match appears to attenuate the temperature effect, pointing to the relevance of short-term adaptation mechanisms rather than cumulative physiological stress.