Marco Pecoraro (University of Neuchâtel)
Bruno Lanz and Didier Ruedin
This paper quantifies the short- to long-term effects of refugees on labour markets and anti-asylum ballots. Using the large-scale arrival of Yugoslav refugees to Switzerland in the 1990s with an instrumental variables strategy, we find that refugee exposure increases municipal-level unemployment and anti-asylum voting in the short term. Over a decade later, the refugee shock is no longer associated with unemployment, whereas the early increase in support for anti-asylum ballots reverses in areas with higher initial exposure, notably in rural municipalities. These results highlight the temporary nature of labour market disruptions and the longer-term shift in anti-asylum attitudes.