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AIEL 2026


41st Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Law
Roma Tre University 

Rome, 17-19 September 2026 

Unequal Tightening: Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Labor Market Outcomes across the Wage Distribution


Presenter

Luca Giangregorio (University of Roma Tre)


Coauthors

Giacomo Rella


Abstract

This paper investigates the heterogeneous effects of restrictive monetary policy on labor market outcomes across the wage distribution in Spain. Exploiting administrative data from the Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales over the period 2012–2019, linked with the high-frequency monetary policy shock indicator of Jaroci´nski and Karadi (2020), we document that contractionary monetary policy significantly increases wage inequality. Using local projections estimated at the individual level, we show that workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment through wage losses, reductions in working hours, contractual downgrades from full- time to part-time, and persistent employment losses driven by both higher separation rates and lower job-finding rates. Workers in the upper half of the distribution remain largely unaffected. The absence of voluntary resignations and of reallocation across employers and sectors points to firm-level labor demand as the primary driver of these adjustments, with low-wage workers having little capacity to respond on the labor supply side.