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AIEL 2026


41st Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics

Department of Law
Roma Tre University 

Rome, 17-19 September 2026 

When Trade Shocks Collide with Labor Mobility: A Perfect Storm for Labor Market Outcomes?


Presenter

Nicolò Gatti (Catholic University of Milan)


Abstract

This paper investigates whether trade shocks interact with labor mobility in affecting workers’ outcomes. As a natural experiment, I exploit the sharp Swiss franc appreciation following the unexpected removal of the exchange rate floor against the euro in January 2015, which raised EU cross-border workers’ incentives to seek employment in Switzerland. Leveraging variation in sectoral trade exposure and geographic proximity to national borders, I find that the adverse unemployment and earnings effects are concentrated in border regions, where the share of immigrant cross-border workers in trade-exposed industries increased by more than 4 percentage points in areas closest to the frontier.